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| User Info | More on the SHAM "Stress Test" in forum [Ticker] | |||
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26 
Royal Flush! 
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http://market-ticker.org/archives/1029-M....
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-05-08 12:39:14
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Bentick Posts: 37 Incept: 2009-02-02
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Losses at 19 of the nation's largest banks could be as high as $599 billion through the end of next year if the economy performs worse then expected. It's already worse than expected. Next year Geithner, et al, will shrug their collective shoulders and say - Who could have known? This is just one more step toward nationalization - now they can't say we didn't try everything else first. Last modified:
2009-05-08 13:08:46 by bentick
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Mightyhetfield Posts: 43 Incept: 2008-10-02 Aurora Illinois
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We have passed the point of no return. This is the last ditch attempt to avoid the inevitable conclusion. As you have stated so many times before, one way or another the debt has to be cleared from the system! There are two ways to do that pay it off, or default. The only chance in hell to pay it off is for the government and the media to blatantly LIE in an attempt to convince the sheeple that it will all be O.K. and they should pump up the bank stocks so they can raise enough capital to cover the losses, or just go ahead and take the money from us by force through taxation, and give it to the banks. (which they are already doing). 2009-05-08 13:10:33
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Dashingdwl Posts: 4039 Incept: 2007-06-26 
los angeles Online
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But first..... ........... we rally. J6P has already moved on from the stress tests. They don't matter now. ---------- Think Green Tip. 2009-05-08 13:10:48
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Vacanthomes Posts: 12 Incept: 2008-07-07 Detroit, MI
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Love the "Disclosure: Short Ben Bernanke, The Fed and Treasury". :D
2009-05-08 13:15:31
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Bentick Posts: 37 Incept: 2009-02-02
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Bernanke will attempt the stealth default by continuing to sop up the 30-year. This is a dangerous strategy socially, because unemployment continues unabated, and people with no money will see the value of their few remaining dollars diminished dramatically. Remember when Japanese goods were cheap? Think China. The 99 Cent Store in 2012 will be renamed the $5 Store, unemployment will rise, and wages will remain stagnant. The Fed's strategy will break the backs of the poor wage earners, and historically, that hasn't worked out so well. And by poor wage earners, I mean everyone who can't afford a summer home in Hawaii. Last modified:
2009-05-08 13:21:55 by bentick
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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I'm getting seriously short at the close today. I'm looking for a recommendation of which broad based inverse ETF - not a 2X or 3X is the way to go. I'm willing finally to risk my capital betting we'll roll over. I gotta a little long a while back and have not been hurt by this rally. I'm with you, Gen on calling bull**** on the green shoots. I'm just trying to figure out who they are trying to **** now with all of the cheerleading on the street. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2009-05-08 13:20:39
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Istt Posts: 26 Incept: 2007-10-11
Cincinnati
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The market seems to believe the losses are already baked in and even if the level of deterioration turns out worse than anticipated everyone knows the government will just step in with more money. This seems to be the mindset as reflected in the price movements.
2009-05-08 13:22:51
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Dashingdwl Posts: 4039 Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles Online
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Istt, If that is true then we may not get any meaningful pull back in equities until the treasury bond complex refuses to buy new treasury bonds. I'm starting to think the government can prop up the treasury market far longer than anyone wants to admit. ---------- Think Green Tip. 2009-05-08 13:26:27
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Lukehappy Posts: 940 Incept: 2007-06-26
Santa Fe, NM
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Maybe this is the reason the CFO committed suicide. He knew what was coming and knew the government would lie to the taxpayers re the stress test.,
2009-05-08 13:29:22
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Weaseldog Posts: 282 Incept: 2008-12-11 Texas Banned
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I wouldn't worry about the banks. There is a clear path to saving them, and though it won't be admitted out loud for a while, this road will be taken. The bailouts will become institutionalized. The banks will receive a bailout every quarter forever. The bailouts will grow over time. This is the only way to keep the banks and their risks growing. And growth is the plan according to Obama. The financial sector is in overshoot. It's too big for the the world to support through normal businesses practices. Only a steady and unrelenting diet of bailouts can keep this sector growing. If the banks stop growing, his plan fails. “We must lay a New Foundation for growth — a foundation that will strengthen our economy and help us compete in the 21st century,” - President Obama And as I pointed out in an earlier post, when species are in overshoot, they consume and destroy the environment that sustains them. To keep the banks growing past their current overshoot condition, the rest of our economy will be consumed and destroyed. ---------- "You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." - Richard Feynman 2009-05-08 13:29:44
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Dashingdwl Posts: 4039 Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles Online
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The only thing that will stop the bailouts will be the inability to sell treasury bonds. There is no political will to stop the bailouts.
---------- Think Green Tip. 2009-05-08 13:32:09
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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Just short the spyders - pick one - SPY, QQQQ or IWM. The IWM is highest-risk but best reward. The QQQQs are probably next although there is something to be said for the SPYs if the financial bull**** is recognized - it will fall apart FAST. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-05-08 13:34:23
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Mikpaq Posts: 19 Incept: 2009-02-26 Maine
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Isn't Fannie a melting pot of all the really bad, crappy mortgages that banks didn't want to hold in the first place? Then wouldn't we assume that the larger banks like BofA, Citi, WFC, and others have handed over much of the really bad loans already? So why would you then determine that they would likely see the same deliquency rate? If that's the case then FNM would be the worst case scenario, wouldn't it? 2009-05-08 13:36:13
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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They have some crap but as a percentage they're in better shape than most. Their biggest problem was simply being geared 80:1. ---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me Last modified:
2009-05-08 13:37:25 by genesis
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Istt Posts: 26 Incept: 2007-10-11
Cincinnati
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It is just mind-boggling the way the stock market is behaving. Less than 6 months ago it appeared many large banks would go under as evidenced by the prices, e.g., FITB at 1.01, today at up over 60%, approaching 9 a share. Everyone knows the stress tests are a sham but they also know the government will not let the banks fail, turning the market into a giant casino with the house manipulating the action. Even though we know the market is broken we also know the Federal government can prop it up for very long periods of time. Very disheartening and disillusioning. 2009-05-08 13:41:51
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Gen, When you are saying they have some crap. Are you talking Fnm? They have a bunch of EA1, EA2, EA3 loans on their books which were their subprime alternative. Also a bunch of underwater 100% financing from the bubble areas that is probably about 125 ltv now. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2009-05-08 14:24:49
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Genesis Posts: 66463 Incept: 2007-06-26
Royal Flush!
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As a blended whole I bet Fannie's book is better than, say, Wells'.
---------- I used to play flute; I wonder if I can play a fife? I incite prosecutors to create "Bubba Sausage Parking Lot" projects Darrell Issa has a middle finger and knows how to use it - Me 2009-05-08 14:29:56
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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That one is hard to judge. But I would agree. Wells doesn't have a whole lotta subprime as a percentage of what they are servicing. But the got a whole lotta helocs under water. There are enough **** sandwiches out there to get everybody one. No need to push to the front of the line. We got plenty. Back to the old are they a zero question. Is Wells a single digit stock? I think so. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2009-05-08 14:37:44
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Weaseldog Posts: 282 Incept: 2008-12-11 Texas Banned
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Why would failure to sell treasuries, end the bailouts? Seems to me that they could just do it the old fashioned way and print money. Heck, why not let the troubled banks print their own money? ---------- "You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." - Richard Feynman 2009-05-08 14:44:16
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Themortgagedude Posts: 3343 Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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Weasle- The thought is if they print it's over. I've been somewhat advocating printing myself. Its all the same to me. Borrow it or print it - to me it's all a promise to pay something we truly are unwilling to make the sacrifices to pay. ---------- Since September it's just gotten colder and colder. There's less daylight now, I've noticed too. This can only mean one thing - the sun is going out. In a few more months the Earth will be a dark and lifeless ball of ice. 2009-05-08 14:48:30
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Thrustvectoring Posts: 149 Incept: 2008-09-17
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Quote:The thought is if they print it's over Correct. Printing dollars means that we lose our ability to price oil, and with the dependence of agriculture and transportation to oil is staggering. Expensive oil is a huge instant hit to our standard of living and, if the price shock is severe enough, life as we know it. Yes, America has quite extensive natural resources, but most of these resources can't replace oil for putting food in supermarkets, and urban life is three square meals away from anarchy. As far as an intentional default or soft default (via printing) on Treasuries goes, we'd need some preptime in order to actually pull it off. Specifically I'm thinking electrified rail - we have plenty of coal, so we can run coal plants to power trains to move things around (food, tanks, whatever). Still, anyone who lets a Treasury default happen on their watch is not going to stay in power, provided there still are elections, so its very very unlikely IMHO 2009-05-08 15:03:25
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Dji Posts: 554 Incept: 2009-04-21
orange park Online
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you know it is a load of bull**** and lies! FDIC wants 500 billion more, sorry NEEDS Here's your sign! I bet they will need 5 trillion more. As for a play, here comes inflation and watch oil get back up to 100$ a barrel can you DIG it? up 8.77% today ---------- What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project THE TRUTH HURTS! -Dji Last modified:
2009-05-08 16:15:48 by dji
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Xennady Posts: 2419 Incept: 2008-03-18 
Too damn near Detroit
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thrustvectoring, Yeah- but if we could build coal plants to power those trains we could also build nuke plants, and refineries to refine oil from ANWAR and from other places that it is untouchable as of now. In other words, we don't have a financial crisis- we have a political crisis which manifests in many varied ways including financially. If we could solve the political crisis everything else could also be solved. 2009-05-08 16:29:28
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Weaseldog Posts: 282 Incept: 2008-12-11 Texas Banned
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How can we prove that they aren't just printing money now? And how is selling debt that will never be repaid, substantially different than printing money? So long as the Fed and the US Gov are willing to go to infinity and beyond, is there a meaningful difference? Or is the touchy feely illusion of value, enough to keep the game going at high rate of growth for decades? Isn't the real reason that we don't have Zimbabwe inflationary problem, is because the in our economic climate, wages and salaries have been successfully repressed through repeated boom and bust cycles? Hasn't the prevention of savings and the financial vacuuming of the money supply from the public, kept hyperinflation from kicking in? And so long as we don't actually have a recovery, won't the dollar retain it's value? ---------- "You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." - Richard Feynman Last modified:
2009-05-08 17:03:42 by weaseldog
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